The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis
Author(s)
Grant, Neil
Hawkes, Adam
Napp, Tamaryn
Gambhir, Ajay
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios.
Date Issued
2020-07-01
Date Acceptance
2020-05-26
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10 (7), pp.605-610
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
605
End Page
610
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
10
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Springer Nature Limited.
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0826-9
Grant Number
820846
Subjects
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
0502 Environmental Science and Management
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-06-29