Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Fu, Han
Lewnard, Joseph A
Frost, Isabel
Laxminarayan, Ramanan
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7–11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6–8.1%) of deaths over 2020–2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12–16%) and 31% (29–33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance.
Date Issued
2021-01-18
Date Acceptance
2020-12-16
Citation
Nature Communications, 2021, 12, pp.1-9
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1
End Page
9
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give
appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative
Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party
material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the
article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory
regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from
the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20731-x
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
n/a
Subjects
Adolescent
Adult
Antitubercular Agents
Computer Simulation
Drug Resistance, Bacterial
Global Burden of Disease
Humans
Incidence
Models, Statistical
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis
Rifampin
Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis Vaccines
Humans
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Tuberculosis
Rifampin
Tuberculosis Vaccines
Antitubercular Agents
Incidence
Models, Statistical
Drug Resistance, Bacterial
Computer Simulation
Adolescent
Adult
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis
Global Burden of Disease
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
424
Date Publish Online
2021-01-18