Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Babovic, F
Mijic, A
Madani, K
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Urbanisation and climate change are augmenting the uncertainty surrounding the future state of the world’s water resource and are resulting in cities experiencing growing levels of risk of pluvial flooding. Drainage infrastructure is generally built using the paradigm of ‘predict and optimise’; however, this approach fails to account for erroneous predictions. This can result in drainage systems delivering insufficient levels of flood protection. Irrespective of these uncertainties new drainage systems must be built, and existing ones adapted in such a way that they remain reliable. This work presents a critical analysis of the drivers of change of urban pluvial flooding and the uncertainties surrounding urban flood planning; thereby highlighting the shortcomings of current planning methodologies. Different Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) frameworks are then explored and it is shown that they offer an improved ability to design reliable urban flood systems regardless of highly uncertain future conditions.
Date Issued
2018-10-11
Date Acceptance
2018-09-17
Citation
Urban Water Journal, 2018, 15 (6), pp.552-560
ISSN
1573-062X
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Start Page
552
End Page
560
Journal / Book Title
Urban Water Journal
Volume
15
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Urban Water Journal on 11 Oct 2018, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2018.1529803
Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Subjects
0406 Physical Geography And Environmental Geoscience
0905 Civil Engineering
1604 Human Geography
Environmental Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-10-11