Data assimilation predictive GAN (DA-PredGAN) applied to a spatio-temporal compartmental model in epidemiology
File(s)s10915-022-02078-1.pdf (4.04 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Silva, Vinicius LS
Heaney, Claire E
Li, Yaqi
Pain, Christopher C
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We propose a novel use of generative adversarial networks (GANs) (i) to make predictions in time (PredGAN) and (ii) to assimilate measurements (DA-PredGAN). In the latter case, we take advantage of the natural adjoint-like properties of generative models and the ability to simulate forwards and backwards in time. GANs have received much attention recently, after achieving excellent results for their generation of realistic-looking images. We wish to explore how this property translates to new applications in computational modelling and to exploit the adjoint-like properties for efficient data assimilation. We apply these methods to a compartmental model in epidemiology that is able to model space and time variations, and that mimics the spread of COVID-19 in an idealised town. To do this, the GAN is set within a reduced-order model, which uses a low-dimensional space for the spatial distribution of the simulation states. Then the GAN learns the evolution of the low-dimensional states over time. The results show that the proposed methods can accurately predict the evolution of the high-fidelity numerical simulation, and can efficiently assimilate observed data and determine the corresponding model parameters.
Date Issued
2022-12-28
Date Acceptance
2022-11-28
Citation
Journal of Scientific Computing, 2022, 94 (1)
ISSN
0885-7474
Publisher
Springer
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Scientific Computing
Volume
94
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000905667900001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Mathematics, Applied
Mathematics
Generative adversarial networks
Spatio-temporal prediction
Data assimilation
Reduced-order model
Deep learning
Compartmental model
Epidemiology
COVID-19
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 25