Applications of Bayesian model averaging to the curvature and size of the Universe
File(s)1101.5476v2.pdf (183.25 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Vardanyan, M
Trotta, R
Silk, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Bayesian model averaging is a procedure to obtain parameter constraints that account for the uncertainty about the correct cosmological model. We use recent cosmological observations and Bayesian model averaging to derive tight limits on the curvature parameter, as well as robust lower bounds on the curvature radius of the Universe and its minimum size, while allowing for the possibility of an evolving dark energy component. Because flat models are favoured by Bayesian model selection, we find that model-averaged constraints on the curvature and size of the Universe can be considerably stronger than non-model-averaged ones. For the most conservative prior choice (based on inflationary considerations), our procedure improves on non-model-averaged constraints on the curvature by a factor of ∼2. The curvature scale of the Universe is conservatively constrained to be Rc > 42 Gpc (99 per cent), corresponding to a lower limit to the number of Hubble spheres in the Universe NU > 251 (99 per cent).
Date Issued
2011-05-01
Date Acceptance
2011-02-28
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2011, 413 (1), pp.L91-L95
ISSN
1365-2966
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
L91
End Page
L95
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
413
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society following peer review. The version of record Mihran Vardanyan, Roberto Trotta, and Joseph Silk
Applications of Bayesian model averaging to the curvature and size of the Universe
MNRAS (2011) Vol. 413 L91-L95 is available online at:https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-3933.2011.01040.x
Applications of Bayesian model averaging to the curvature and size of the Universe
MNRAS (2011) Vol. 413 L91-L95 is available online at:https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-3933.2011.01040.x
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
methods: statistical
cosmological parameters
cosmology: theory
OBSERVATIONS COSMOLOGICAL INTERPRETATION
CONSTRAINTS
PARAMETERS
SELECTION
SKY
Publication Status
Published