Long-term glucose forecasting using a physiological model and deconvolution of the continuous glucose monitoring signal
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
(1) Objective: Blood glucose forecasting in type 1 diabetes (T1D) management is a maturing field with numerous algorithms being published and a few of them having reached the commercialisation stage. However, accurate long-term glucose predictions (e.g., >60 min), which are usually needed in applications such as precision insulin dosing (e.g., an artificial pancreas), still remain a challenge. In this paper, we present a novel glucose forecasting algorithm that is well-suited for long-term prediction horizons. The proposed algorithm is currently being used as the core component of a modular safety system for an insulin dose recommender developed within the EU-funded PEPPER (Patient Empowerment through Predictive PERsonalised decision support) project. (2) Methods: The proposed blood glucose forecasting algorithm is based on a compartmental composite model of glucose–insulin dynamics, which uses a deconvolution technique applied to the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) signal for state estimation. In addition to commonly employed inputs by glucose forecasting methods (i.e., CGM data, insulin, carbohydrates), the proposed algorithm allows the optional input of meal absorption information to enhance prediction accuracy. Clinical data corresponding to 10 adult subjects with T1D were used for evaluation purposes. In addition, in silico data obtained with a modified version of the UVa-Padova simulator was used to further evaluate the impact of accounting for meal absorption information on prediction accuracy. Finally, a comparison with two well-established glucose forecasting algorithms, the autoregressive exogenous (ARX) model and the latent variable-based statistical (LVX) model, was carried out. (3) Results: For prediction horizons beyond 60 min, the performance of the proposed physiological model-based (PM) algorithm is superior to that of the LVX and ARX algorithms. When comparing the performance of PM against the secondly ranked method (ARX) on a 120 min prediction horizon, the percentage improvement on prediction accuracy measured with the root mean square error, A-region of error grid analysis (EGA), and hypoglycaemia prediction calculated by the Matthews correlation coefficient, was 18.8% , 17.9% , and 80.9% , respectively. Although showing a trend towards improvement, the addition of meal absorption information did not provide clinically significant improvements. (4) Conclusion: The proposed glucose forecasting algorithm is potentially well-suited for T1D management applications which require long-term glucose predictions.
Date Issued
2019-10-08
Date Acceptance
2019-10-05
Citation
Sensors, 2019, 19 (19), pp.1-19
ISSN
1424-8220
Publisher
MDPI AG
Start Page
1
End Page
19
Journal / Book Title
Sensors
Volume
19
Issue
19
Copyright Statement
c 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/19/19/4338
Subjects
artificial pancreas
continuous glucose monitoring
deconvolution
glucose prediction
physiological modelling
type 1 diabetes
Analytical Chemistry
0301 Analytical Chemistry
0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
0502 Environmental Science and Management
0602 Ecology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-10-08