Probabilistic assessment of Antarctic thermomechanical structure: impacts on ice sheet stability
File(s)hazzard_etal_2023_jgr.pdf (7.42 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Hazzard, James AN
Richards, Fred D
Goes, Saskia DB
Roberts, Gareth G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Uncertainty in present-day glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rates represents at least 44% of the total gravity-based ice mass balance signal over Antarctica. Meanwhile, physical couplings between solid Earth, sea level and ice dynamics enhance the dependency of the spatiotemporally varying GIA signal on three-dimensional variations in mantle rheology. Improved knowledge of thermomechanical mantle structure is therefore required to refine estimates of current and projected ice mass balance. Here, we present a Bayesian inverse method for self-consistently mapping shear-wave velocities from high-resolution adjoint tomography into thermomechanical structure using calibrated parameterisations of anelasticity at seismic frequency. We constrain the model using regional geophysical data sets containing information on upper mantle temperature, attenuation and viscosity structure. Our treatment allows formal quantification of parameter covariances, and naturally permits propagation of material parameter uncertainties into thermomechanical structure estimates. We find that uncertainty in steady-state viscosity structure at 150 km depth can be reduced by 4–5 orders of magnitude compared with a forward-modeling approach neglecting covariance between viscoelastic parameters. By accounting for the dependence of apparent viscosity on loading timescale, we find good agreement between our estimates of mantle viscosity beneath West Antarctica, and those derived from satellite GPS. Direct access to temperature structure allows us to estimate lateral variations in lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth, geothermal heat flow (GHF), and associated uncertainties. We find evidence for shallow LAB depths (63 ± 13 km), and high GHF (76 ± 7 mW m−2) beneath West Antarctica that, combined with low asthenospheric viscosities, indicate a highly dynamic response to ice mass loss.
Date Issued
2023-05
Date Acceptance
2023-04-27
Citation
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2023, 128 (5)
ISSN
2169-9313
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Volume
128
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2023. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000988933600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
anelasticity
Bayesian
BAYESIAN INVERSION
EARTH STRUCTURE
Geochemistry & Geophysics
geothermal
GLACIAL ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT
heat flow
HEAT-FLOW
lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary
LITHOSPHERE-ASTHENOSPHERE BOUNDARY
OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE
Physical Sciences
RAPID BEDROCK UPLIFT
Science & Technology
SEA-LEVEL
THERMAL STRUCTURE
UPPER-MANTLE STRUCTURE
viscosity
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e2023JB026653
Date Publish Online
2023-05-05