Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the distribution of sexual partner ages over age and sex. We identified which probability distributions and outcome specifications best captured variation in partner age and quantified the benefits of modelling these data using distributional regression. We found that distributional regression with a sinh-arcsinh distribution replicated observed partner age distributions most accurately across three geographically diverse data sets. This framework can be extended with well-known hierarchical modelling tools and can help improve estimates of sexual age-mixing dynamics.
Date Issued
2021-06-24
Date Acceptance
2021-06-23
Citation
eLife, 2021, 10, pp.1-38
ISSN
2050-084X
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Start Page
1
End Page
38
Journal / Book Title
eLife
Volume
10
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Wolock et al. This
article is distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use and
redistribution provided that the
original author and source are
credited.
article is distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which
permits unrestricted use and
redistribution provided that the
original author and source are
credited.
License URL
Sponsor
National Institutes of Health
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Identifier
https://elifesciences.org/articles/68318
Grant Number
5776-ICS-DHHS-6664
MR/R015600/1
2018/837458-0 PO202048522
EPPHZM5513/Imperial
Subjects
age mixing
bayesian statistics
distributional regression
epidemiology
global health
none
sexual behaviour
sinh-arcsinh distribution
stat.AP
stat.AP
stat.ME
0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-24