Quantifying dire evacuations in case of wildfire using trigger boundaries and case study of the 2018 Mati wildfire in Greece
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos
Mitchell, Harry
Kuligowski, Erica
Ronchi, Enrico
Rein, Guillermo
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Wildfire evacuation is a life-saving measure of last resort, but delays can lead to dire outcomes, putting people at risk of fire entrapment. The success or failure of an evacuation depends on the relative speeds of the wildfire and the evacuation, and this varies across communities and wildfires. Despite the importance of understanding this dynamic, no formal framework exists to define or quantify a dire evacuation, and the term is often used informally in technical literature. This paper proposes a method for quantitatively defining dire evacuations using trigger boundaries. Trigger boundaries are perimeters indicating that the time left before a wildfire reaches a community equals the time required for evacuation. By treating both wildfire spread and evacuation times as probabilistic variables, we introduce an evacuation safety factor to assess the likelihood of a dire evacuation. This factor ranges from 1 (no risk of dire evacuation) to 0 (100% risk). Trigger boundaries thus define the latest wildfire location with a low risk of a dire evacuation. The 2018 Mati wildfire in Greece illustrates this approach. In Mati, fast-moving flames led to a dire evacuation with 104 fatalities. Our model shows that its evacuation safety factor was well below 1 even from the moment the wildfire was detected, indicating a high probability of dire evacuation from the start. This methodology can be applied to past wildfires for forensic analysis or to guide future evacuation strategies. Identifying trigger boundaries allows communities to prepare more effectively for wildfire threats and enhance their safety plans.
Date Issued
2025-01-01
Date Acceptance
2024-10-03
Citation
Safety Science, 2025, 181
ISSN
0925-7535
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Safety Science
Volume
181
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).
License URL
Subjects
Disaster
Engineering
Engineering, Industrial
Evacuation
Fire
FOREST-FIRE FATALITIES
Operations Research & Management Science
Planning
Science & Technology
Simulation
Technology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
106691
Date Publish Online
2024-10-22