Meteorologically driven changes in future global air quality: physical and monetized impacts
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Exposure to ambient air pollution, including ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Estimating how this burden may change in the future depends on projecting population growth and age structure as well as understanding how future meteorological changes may impact the production and removal of pollutants from the atmosphere. The net impact of these factors on a global scale has not been well-characterized. Here, we leverage recent meteorology, exposure, and mortality output from general circulation, atmospheric chemistry, and health impact models to isolate how changes in meteorology and populations will impact future global air-pollution-related mortality and the associated monetized impacts by the degree of global temperature change. In contrast to previous studies, we estimate that changes in meteorologically driven air pollution, in the absence of pollutant precursor emission changes, will result in 180 000 fewer deaths annually by 2100 relative to current levels, an annual monetized benefit of $7.3 trillion. Reductions are driven by decreases in PM2.5-attributable mortality in populated regions but are substantially offset by global increases in ozone-related mortality. We also highlight striking regional differences in the sign of net pollutant impacts by 2100, with net pollution decreases in the Northern Hemisphere driven by reductions in nitrate aerosol, while increases in both ozone and organic aerosol at higher temperatures lead to net increases in pollutant impacts in the Southern Hemisphere. Lastly, we assess sensitivities of these results to meteorological projections, health impact functions, and 10 000 future warming scenarios.
Date Issued
2026-07-14
Date Acceptance
2026-06-04
Citation
Environmental Science & Technology, 2026, 60 (27), pp.19051-19063
ISSN
0013-936X
Publisher
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Start Page
19051
End Page
19063
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Science & Technology
Volume
60
Issue
27
Copyright Statement
© 2026 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society. This publication is licensed under CC-BY 4.0 .
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/42390255
Subjects
air pollution
benefit
cost
meteorological projections
mortality
Air Pollution
Ozone
Particulate Matter
Air Pollutants
Humans
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2026-07-02