Speculation, sentiment and interest rates
File(s)1_Main.pdf (2.98 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Buraschi, Andrea
Whelan, Paul
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We compare the implications of speculation versus hedging channels for bond markets in heterogeneous agents’ economies. Treasuries command a significant risk premium when optimistic agents speculate by leveraging their positions using bonds. Disagreement drives a wedge between marginal agent versus econometrician beliefs (sentiment). When speculative demands dominate, the interaction between belief heterogeneity and sentiment helps rationalize several puzzling characteristics of Treasury markets. Empirically, we test model predictions and find that larger disagreement (i) lowers the risk-free rate, (ii) raises the slope of the yield curve, and (iii) with positive sentiment increases bond risk premia and makes its dynamics countercyclical.
Date Issued
2022-03-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-04
Citation
Management Science, 2022, 68 (3), pp.1591-2376
ISSN
0025-1909
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Start Page
1591
End Page
2376
Journal / Book Title
Management Science
Volume
68
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2021, INFORMS
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
fixed income
bond risk premia
heterogeneous agents
speculation
HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS
LONG-RUN
INVESTOR SENTIMENT
TERM STRUCTURE
ASSET PRICES
RISK
MODEL
COMPENSATION
PREFERENCES
FORECASTS
08 Information and Computing Sciences
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Operations Research
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-04-20