Insensitivity of ecosystem productivity to predicted changes in fine‐scale rainfall variability
Author(s)
Moustakis, Yiannis
Fatichi, Simone
Onof, Christian J
Paschalis, Athanasios
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Changes in rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect the tightly coupled water-carbon ecosystem dynamics. Here, we study the effects of altered rainfall at 33 sites in North America, as projected by the high-resolution/high-fidelity ( ∼ 4km, 1h) continental-wide WRF convection-permitting model under a high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5). We make use of a stochastic weather generator to extend WRF outputs, accounting for natural variability and simultaneously separate the changes in total rainfall, its seasonality, and its intraseasonal pattern. We used these rainfall scenarios to study ecosystem responses with the state-of-the-art Tethys-Chloris terrestrial biosphere model. Model simulations suggest that increases in mean annual rainfall dominate ecosystem responses at dry sites, while wet sites are less sensitive to rainfall changes. Sites of intermediate wetness face reductions in productivity, due to reduced growing season rainfall and increased water losses under altered seasonality, which outpace any possible benefits induced by increases in mean annual totals. Changes in the fine-scale temporal structure of rainfall have an insignificant impact on ecosystem productivity and only alter hydrological dynamics, contradicting expectations based on some field experiments, which, however, are not tailored to directly quantify climate change impacts, but rather to understand the mechanisms leading to ecosystem responses. We further demonstrate how approaches following the ”fewer but larger rainfall events” concept might exacerbate ecosystem responses.
Date Issued
2022-02
Date Acceptance
2022-01-14
Citation
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 2022, 127 (2), pp.1-21
ISSN
2169-8953
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Start Page
1
End Page
21
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Volume
127
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
License URL
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JG006735
Grant Number
NE/S003495/1
Subjects
0404 Geophysics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-01-26