The global burden of yellow fever
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling.
Werefine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data,
we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in
Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Werefine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data,
we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in
Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.
Date Issued
2021-03-16
Date Acceptance
2021-02-23
Citation
eLife, 2021, 10
ISSN
2050-084X
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
Journal / Book Title
eLife
Volume
10
Copyright Statement
© 2021, Gaythorpe et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33722340
PII: 64670
Subjects
ANTIBODIES
Biology
INFECTIONS
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
e64670
Date Publish Online
2021-03-16