Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The need for energy storage to balance intermittent and inflexible electricity supply with demand is driving interest in conversion of renewable electricity via electrolysis into a storable gas. But, high capital cost and uncertainty regarding future cost and performance improvements are barriers to investment in water electrolysis. Expert elicitations can support decision-making when data are sparse and their future development uncertain. Therefore, this study presents expert views on future capital cost, lifetime and efficiency for three electrolysis technologies: alkaline (AEC), proton exchange membrane (PEMEC) and solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). Experts estimate that increased R&D funding can reduce capital costs by 0–24%, while production scale-up alone has an impact of 17–30%. System lifetimes may converge at around 60,000–90,000 h and efficiency improvements will be negligible. In addition to innovations on the cell-level, experts highlight improved production methods to automate manufacturing and produce higher quality components. Research into SOECs with lower electrode polarisation resistance or zero-gap AECs could undermine the projected dominance of PEMEC systems. This study thereby reduces barriers to investment in water electrolysis and shows how expert elicitations can help guide near-term investment, policy and research efforts to support the development of electrolysis for low-carbon energy systems.
Date Issued
2017-11-22
Date Acceptance
2017-10-09
Citation
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2017, 42 (52), pp.30470-30492
ISSN
0360-3199
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
30470
End Page
30492
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
Volume
42
Issue
52
Copyright Statement
© 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications
LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/)
LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (E
Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
Grant Number
EP/K503733/1
ES/M500562/1
Subjects
09 Engineering
03 Chemical Sciences
Energy
Publication Status
Published