Modelling transmission of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in camel populations and the potential impact of animal vaccination
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Dighe, Amy
Jombart, Thibaut
Ferguson, Neil
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans are driven by recurring zoonotic spillover from camels, leading to demand for camel vaccination. With two vaccine candidates shown to reduce infectiousness, there is a need to better understand transmission of MERS-CoV in camels and assess the potential impact of vaccination. To help address this, we used age-stratified seroprevalence data and a combination of modelling methodologies to estimate key epidemiological quantities including MERS-CoV transmissibility in camels and to estimate vaccine impact on infection incidence. Transmissibility was higher in West Asia (R0 interquartile range 7-14) compared to Africa (3-5) and South Asia (2-3), highlighting the need for setting-specific vaccination strategies. Modelling suggested that even if the vaccine only reduced infectiousness rather than susceptibility to infection, vaccinating calves could achieve large reductions in incidence in moderate and high transmission settings, and interrupt transmission in low transmission settings, provided coverage was high (70-90%).
Date Issued
2025-08-18
Date Acceptance
2025-07-18
Citation
Nature Communications, 2025, 16, pp.1-14
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Start Page
1
End Page
14
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
16
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Journal
Nature Communications
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
7679