The short-term predictability of returns in order book markets: a deep learning perspective
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Published version
Author(s)
Lucchese, Lorenzo
Pakkanen, Mikko
Veraart, Almut
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper uses deep learning techniques to conduct a systematic large-scale analysis of order book-driven predictability in high-frequency returns. First, we introduce a new and robust representation of the order book, the volume representation. Next, we conduct an extensive empirical experiment to address various questions regarding predictability. We investigate if and how far ahead there is predictability, the importance of a robust data representation, the advantages of multi-horizon modeling, and the presence of universal trading patterns. We use model confidence sets, which provide a formalized statistical inference framework well suited to answer these questions. Our findings show that at high frequencies, predictability in mid-price returns is not just present but ubiquitous. The performance of the deep learning models is strongly dependent on the choice of order book representation, and in this respect, the volume representation appears to have multiple practical advantages.
Date Issued
2024-10-01
Date Acceptance
2024-02-02
Citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2024, 40 (4), pp.1587-1621
ISSN
0169-2070
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1587
End Page
1621
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume
40
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under
the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207024000062?via%3Dihub
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2024-02-27