Reassessing reported deaths and estimated infection attack rate during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 epidemic, Delhi, India.
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
Date Issued
2022-02-25
Date Acceptance
2022-01-02
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2022, 28 (4)
ISSN
1080-6040
Publisher
U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases
Journal / Book Title
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
28
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s)
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35213800
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
216427/Z/19/Z
Subjects
COVID-19
India
SARS-CoV-2
coronavirus disease
epidemics
infection attack rate
infection fatality ratio
mathematical modeling
respiratory infections
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
viruses
zoonoses
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2022-02-25