Living with COVID-19: Balancing costs against benefits in the face of the virus
File(s)Normalising COVID 19 July 2 draft .docx (1.75 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Miles, David
Stedman, Mike
Heald, Adrian
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper analyses the costs and benefits of lockdown policies in the face of COVID-19. What matters for people is the quality and length of lives and one should measure costs and benefits in terms of those things. That raises difficulties in measurement, particularly in valuing potential lives saved. We draw upon guidelines used in the UK for public health decisions, as well as other measures, which allow a comparison between health effects and other economic effects. We look at evidence on the effectiveness of past severe restrictions applied in European countries, focusing on the evidence from the UK. The paper considers policy options for the degree to which restrictions are eased. There is a need to normalise how we view COVID because its costs and risks are comparable to other health problems (such as cancer, heart problems, diabetes) where governments have made resource decisions for decades. The lockdown is a public health policy and we have valued its impact using the tools that guide health care decisions in the UK public health system. The evidence suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions in the UK are large relative to likely benefits so that a substantial easing in general restrictions in favour of more targeted measures is warranted.
Date Issued
2020-08-01
Date Acceptance
2020-07-01
Citation
National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 253, pp.R60-R76
ISSN
0027-9501
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Start Page
R60
End Page
R76
Journal / Book Title
National Institute Economic Review
Volume
253
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Cambridge University Press. This paper has been accepted for publication and will appear in a revised form, subsequent to peer-review and/or editorial input by Cambridge University Press.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000553044300009&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
value of lives saved
cost benefit analysis
COVID-19
UTILITY VALUES
HEALTH
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-07-28