An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions.
Date Issued
2021-10-01
Date Acceptance
2021-06-01
Citation
Natural Hazards, 2021, 109 (1), pp.671-703
ISSN
0921-030X
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
671
End Page
703
Journal / Book Title
Natural Hazards
Volume
109
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000664851600003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
CITIES
Climate change
CLIMATE-CHANGE
CMIP5
Coastal flooding
Dike failure
Geology
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
HURRICANES
IMPACTS
INTENSIFICATION
LAND SUBSIDENCE
LEVEL RISE
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Physical Sciences
Science & Technology
Sea level rise
Tropical cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
TYPHOON-INDUCED FLOODS
Water Resources
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-23