Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries
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Published version
Author(s)
Konstantinoudis, Garyfallos
Cameletti, Michela
Gómez-Rubio,, Virgilio
León Gómez,, Inmaculada
Pirani, Monica
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the
first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
Date Issued
2022-01-25
Date Acceptance
2022-01-05
Citation
Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (482), pp.1-11
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Volume
13
Issue
482
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council
National Institutes of Health
Identifier
http://10.0.4.77/2021.10.18.21264686
Grant Number
P82059
R01HD092580-01A1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
HEALTH
DELAYS
CARE
UK
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-01-25