The relative fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a modelling study of household transmission in Peru
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The relative fitness of drug-resistant versus susceptible bacteria in an environment dictates resistance prevalence. Estimates for the relative fitness of resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains are highly heterogeneous and mostly derived from in vitro experiments. Measuring fitness in the field allows us to determine how the environment influences the spread of resistance. We designed a household structured, stochastic mathematical model to estimate the fitness costs associated with multidrug resistance (MDR) carriage in Mtb in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013. By fitting the model to data from a large prospective cohort study of TB disease in household contacts, we estimated the fitness, relative to susceptible strains with a fitness of 1, of MDR-Mtb to be 0.32 (95% credible interval: 0.15–0.62) or 0.38 (0.24–0.61), if only transmission or progression to disease, respectively, was affected. The relative fitness of MDR-Mtb increased to 0.56 (0.42–0.72) when the fitness cost influenced both transmission and progression to disease equally. We found the average relative fitness of MDR-Mtb circulating within households in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013 to be significantly lower than concurrent susceptible Mtb. If these fitness levels do not change, then existing TB control programmes are likely to keep MDR-TB prevalence at current levels in Lima, Peru.
Date Issued
2018-06-27
Date Acceptance
2018-06-05
Citation
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2018, 15 (143)
ISSN
1742-5662
Publisher
The Royal Society
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
15
Issue
143
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Sponsor
Wellcome Trust
Grant Number
201470/A/16/Z
Subjects
drug-resistance
fitness
mathematical modelling
tuberculosis
MD Multidisciplinary
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-06-27