Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Stafford, PJ
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
© The Author(s) 2015. The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented.
Date Issued
2015-01-01
Date Acceptance
2015-01-01
Citation
Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering, 2015, 39, pp.97-128
ISSN
1573-6059
Publisher
Springer
Start Page
97
End Page
128
Journal / Book Title
Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering
Volume
39
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2015. Available under Open Access
License URL
Publication Status
Published