Improving expert forecasts in reliability. Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols
File(s)Hemming et al 2019 reliability Supporting Information.pdf (891.13 KB)
Supporting information
Author(s)
Hemming, Victoria
Armstrong, Nick
Burgman, Mark
Hanea, Anca
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Quantitative expert judgementsare used in reliability assessmentsto informcritically important decisions. Structured elicitation protocols have been advocated to improveexpert judgements, yet their application in reliability ischallenged by a lack of examples or evidence that they improve judgements. This paper aims to overcome these barriers. We present a case study where two world-leading protocols, the IDEA protocol and the Classical Model were combined and applied by the Australian Department of Defence for a reliability assessment. We assess the practicality of the methods, and the extent to which they improve judgements. The average expert was extremely overconfident, with 90% credible intervals containing the true realisation 36% of the time. However,steps contained inthe protocols substantially improvedjudgements. In particular, an equal weighted aggregation of individual judgements, and the inclusion ofa discussion phase and revised estimate helped to improve calibration, statistical accuracy and the Classical Model score. Further improvements in precision and information were made via performance weighted aggregation. This paper provides useful insights into the application of structured elicitation protocols for reliability andthe extent to which judgements are improved. The findings raise concerns about existing practices for utilising experts in reliability assessments and suggest greater adoption of structured protocols is warranted. We encourage the reliability community to further develop examples and insights.
Date Issued
2020-03
Date Acceptance
2019-11-07
Citation
Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2020, 36 (2), pp.623-641
ISSN
0748-8017
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
623
End Page
641
Journal / Book Title
Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Volume
36
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is the accepted version of the following article: Hemming, V, Armstrong, N, Burgman, MA, Hanea, AM. Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols. Qual Reliab Engng Int. 2020; 36: 623– 641, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.2596
Identifier
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qre.2596
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Engineering
defence
expert elicitation
performance weighting
procurement
reliability
JUDGMENT
KNOWLEDGE
SUPPORT
UNCERTAINTY
MODEL
0102 Applied Mathematics
0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Operations Research
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2019-12-12