Valuing portfolios of interdependent real options using influence diagrams and simulation-and-regression: A multi-stage stochastic integer programming approach
File(s)Manuscript.pdf (561.89 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Maier, S
Polak, John
Gann, David
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Although real options generally occur within portfolios, most valuation approaches based on either option pricing or decision analysis alone focus on single well-defined options. In this paper we present a new approach for modelling and approximating the value of portfolios of interdependent real options using both influence diagrams and simulation-and-regression. The key feature of this approach is that it translates the interdependencies between real options into a set of constraints and then directly models the dynamics of all underlying uncertainties using (Markovian) stochastic processes. These are then integrated in a portfolio optimisation problem which is formulated as a multi-stage stochastic integer program. Applying a simulation and parametric regression approach to approximate the value of this optimisation problem, we present a transparent valuation algorithm that explicitly takes into account vector-valued exercise decisions and the state variable’s multidimensional resource component. The approach is therefore applicable to a wide range of complex investment projects with both inherent interdependent flexibilities and many underlying uncertainties. The approach is illustrated by evaluating a complex natural resource investment that features both a large portfolio of interdependent real options and four stochastic factors. We analyse the way in which the approximated value of the portfolio and its individual options are affected by the initial copper price as well as by the degrees of production cost and copper price uncertainty.
Date Issued
2020-03-01
Date Acceptance
2018-06-29
Citation
Computers and Operations Research, 2020, 115
ISSN
0305-0548
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Computers and Operations Research
Volume
115
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Computer Science
Engineering
Real options portfolio
Influence diagram
Simulation-and-regression
Approximate dynamic programming
Natural resource investment
CAPACITY EXPANSION
VALUATION
INVESTMENT
APPROXIMATION
UNCERTAINTY
EXPLORATION
STRATEGY
Operations Research
0102 Applied Mathematics
0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 104505
Date Publish Online
2018-09-12