A Bayesian mixture modelling approach for public health surveillance
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Published version
Author(s)
Boulieri, A
Bennett, James E
Blangiardo, Marta
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Spatial monitoring of trends in health data plays an important part of public health surveillance. Most commonly, it is used to understand the etiology of a public health issue, to assess the impact of an intervention, or to provide detection of unusual behavior. In this article, we present a Bayesian mixture model for public health surveillance, which is able to provide estimates of the disease risk in space and time, and also to detect areas with unusual behavior. The model is designed to deal with a range of spatial and temporal patterns in the data, and with time series of different lengths. We carry out a simulation study to assess the performance of the model under different scenarios, and we compare it against a recently proposed Bayesian model for short time series. Finally, the proposed model is used for surveillance of road traffic accidents data in England over the years 2005–2015.
Date Issued
2020-07-01
Date Acceptance
2018-06-19
Citation
Biostatistics, 2020, 21 (3), pp.369-383
ISSN
1465-4644
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
369
End Page
383
Journal / Book Title
Biostatistics
Volume
21
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution,and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
MR/L01632X/1
MR/L01632X/1
MR/L01341X/1
MR/M501669/1
Subjects
Bayesian hierarchical analysis
Mixture modeling
Public health surveillance
Road traffic accidents
Small-area detection
Spatio-temporal modeling
0104 Statistics
0604 Genetics
Statistics & Probability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-09-25