CONSTRAINTS ON COSMIC-RAY PROPAGATION MODELS FROM A GLOBAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
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Accepted version
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e.g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in supernova remnant shocks rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, γ-rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions. The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, which uses astrophysical information, and nuclear and particle data as inputs to self-consistently predict CRs, γ-rays, synchrotron, and other observables. We demonstrate that a full Bayesian analysis is possible using nested sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in the SuperBayeS code) despite the heavy computational demands of a numerical propagation code. The best-fit values of parameters found in this analysis are in agreement with previous, significantly simpler, studies also based on GALPROP.
Date Issued
2011-02-15
Date Acceptance
2010-12-10
Citation
Astrophysical Journal, 2011, 729 (2)
ISSN
1538-4357
Publisher
American Astronomical Society
Journal / Book Title
Astrophysical Journal
Volume
729
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2011. The American Astronomical Society.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
astroparticle physics
cosmic rays
diffusion
Galaxy: general
ISM: general
methods: statistical
PARTIAL CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUUM GAMMA-RAYS
DIFFUSION-MODEL
HELIOSPHERIC MODULATION
ANTIPROTON SPECTRUM
INTERSTELLAR-MEDIUM
ENERGY-SPECTRA
MILKY-WAY
NUCLEI
GALAXY
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
106