Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.
This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself.
This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself.
Date Issued
2021-08-20
Date Acceptance
2021-03-26
Citation
Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 783
ISSN
0048-9697
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Science of the Total Environment
Volume
783
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Commission of the European Communities
Shell Global Solutions International BV
Shell Global Solutions International BV
Grant Number
820846
820846
PO 4550182471
PO: 4550182471 (Agr.N.PT77776)
Subjects
Harmonisation
Integrated assessment modelling
Model inter-comparison
Environmental Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 146861
Date Publish Online
2021-04-07