Fast and expensive (PCR) or cheap and slow (culture)? A mathematical modelling study to explore screening for carbapenem resistance in UK hospitals
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Enterobacteriaceae are a common cause of hospital infections. Carbapenems are a clinically effective treatment of such infections. However, resistance is on the rise. In particular, carbapenemase-producing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CP-CRE) are increasingly common. In order to limit spread in clinical settings, screening and isolation is being recommended, but many different screening methods are available. We aimed to compare the impact and costs of three algorithms for detecting CP-CRE carriage.
Methods
We developed an individual-based simulation model to compare three screening algorithms using data from a UK National Health Service (NHS) trust. The first algorithm, “Direct PCR”, was highly sensitive/specific and quick (half a day), but expensive. The second, “Culture + PCR”, was relatively sensitive/specific but slower, requiring 2.5 days. A third algorithm, “PHE”, repeated the “Culture + PCR” three times with an additional PCR. Scenario analysis was used to compare several levels of CP-CRE prevalence and coverage of screening, different specialities as well as isolation strategies. Our outcomes were (1) days that a patient with CP-CRE was not detected and hence not isolated (“days at risk”), (2) isolation bed days, (3) total costs and (4) mean cost per CP-CRE risk day averted per year. We also explored limited isolation bed day capacity.
Results
We found that although a Direct PCR algorithm would reduce the number of CP-CRE days at risk, the mean cost per CP-CRE risk day averted per year was substantially higher than for a Culture + PCR algorithm. For example, in our model of an intensive care unit, during a year with a 1.6% CP-CRE prevalence and 63% screening coverage, there were 508 (standard deviation 15), 642 (14) and 655 (14) days at risk under screening algorithms Direct PCR, Culture + PCR and PHE respectively, with mean costs per risk day averted of £192, £61 and £79. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
Our results indicate that a Culture + PCR algorithm provides the optimal balance of cost and risk days averted, at varying isolation, prevalence and screening coverage scenarios. Findings from this study will help clinical organisations determine the optimal screening approach for CP-CRE, balancing risk and resources.
Enterobacteriaceae are a common cause of hospital infections. Carbapenems are a clinically effective treatment of such infections. However, resistance is on the rise. In particular, carbapenemase-producing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CP-CRE) are increasingly common. In order to limit spread in clinical settings, screening and isolation is being recommended, but many different screening methods are available. We aimed to compare the impact and costs of three algorithms for detecting CP-CRE carriage.
Methods
We developed an individual-based simulation model to compare three screening algorithms using data from a UK National Health Service (NHS) trust. The first algorithm, “Direct PCR”, was highly sensitive/specific and quick (half a day), but expensive. The second, “Culture + PCR”, was relatively sensitive/specific but slower, requiring 2.5 days. A third algorithm, “PHE”, repeated the “Culture + PCR” three times with an additional PCR. Scenario analysis was used to compare several levels of CP-CRE prevalence and coverage of screening, different specialities as well as isolation strategies. Our outcomes were (1) days that a patient with CP-CRE was not detected and hence not isolated (“days at risk”), (2) isolation bed days, (3) total costs and (4) mean cost per CP-CRE risk day averted per year. We also explored limited isolation bed day capacity.
Results
We found that although a Direct PCR algorithm would reduce the number of CP-CRE days at risk, the mean cost per CP-CRE risk day averted per year was substantially higher than for a Culture + PCR algorithm. For example, in our model of an intensive care unit, during a year with a 1.6% CP-CRE prevalence and 63% screening coverage, there were 508 (standard deviation 15), 642 (14) and 655 (14) days at risk under screening algorithms Direct PCR, Culture + PCR and PHE respectively, with mean costs per risk day averted of £192, £61 and £79. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
Our results indicate that a Culture + PCR algorithm provides the optimal balance of cost and risk days averted, at varying isolation, prevalence and screening coverage scenarios. Findings from this study will help clinical organisations determine the optimal screening approach for CP-CRE, balancing risk and resources.
Date Issued
2018-08-16
Date Acceptance
2018-07-04
Citation
BMC Medicine, 2018, 16 (1)
ISSN
1741-7015
Publisher
BioMed Central
Journal / Book Title
BMC Medicine
Volume
16
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute for Health Research
Grant Number
HPRU-2012-10047
HPRU-2012-10047
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
Carbapenem resistance
Screening algorithms
Mathematical modelling
PCR
Culture
COLONIZATION PRESSURE
KLEBSIELLA-PNEUMONIAE
ECONOMIC-EVALUATION
RECTAL SWABS
ENTEROBACTERIACEAE
ORGANISMS
OUTBREAK
SPREAD
COST
SURVEILLANCE
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
141
Date Publish Online
2018-08-16