Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy
File(s)Tokarska_et_al_author_copy_embargo.pdf (1.27 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap.
Date Issued
2019-12-01
Date Acceptance
2019-10-23
Citation
Nature Geoscience, 2019, 12 (12), pp.964-971
ISSN
1752-0894
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
964
End Page
971
Journal / Book Title
Nature Geoscience
Volume
12
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
© Crown 2019. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000499653700003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
820829
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
DEGREES-C
HIATUS
VARIABILITY
CONSISTENT
PATHWAYS
PACIFIC
TARGETS
AEROSOL
CMIP5
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-11-28