Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Das, Jishnu
McCormick, Tyler
Mukhopadhyay, Partha
Sircar, Neelanjan
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, as it manifested in India in April 2020, showed marked heterogeneity in its transmission. Here, we used data collected from contact tracing during the lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 in Punjab, a major state in India, to quantify this heterogeneity, and to examine implications for transmission dynamics. We found evidence of heterogeneity acting at multiple levels: in the number of potentially infectious contacts per index case, and in the per-contact risk of infection. Incorporating these findings in simple mathematical models of disease transmission reveals that these heterogeneities act in combination to strongly influence transmission dynamics. Standard approaches, such as representing heterogeneity through secondary case distributions, could be biased by neglecting these underlying interactions between heterogeneities. We discuss implications for policy, and for more efficient contact tracing in resource-constrained settings such as India. Our results highlight how contact tracing, an important public health measure, can also provide important insights into epidemic spread and control.
Date Issued
2021-09
Date Acceptance
2021-06-16
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2021, 36, pp.1-7
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
36
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Sponsor
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000311?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
OPP1095710
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID-19
Heterogeneity
SARS-CoV-2
Transmission dynamics
1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-06-17