On decent living standards and climate mitigation scenarios
File(s)
Author(s)
Kikstra, Jarmo S.
Type
Thesis or dissertation
Abstract
Can we all enjoy at least decent living standards (DLS) while saving the planet? Humanity faces two of its greatest challenges in poverty eradication and mitigating climate change. Although these social and environmental agendas are closely linked and prominent in international policy, most literature treats them separately, often with a trade-off framing. Here, I combine multiple energy research disciplines to examine the intersection between providing DLS and climate change mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement. My hypothesis is: “Providing decent living standards for all can be compatible with ambitious climate change mitigation.”
Situating the work within climate justice, human needs theory, and energy modelling, I first define DLS and examine current deprivation around the world. I find that more people are deprived of DLS than fall below international income poverty lines, even against medium income poverty thresholds.
Regionally, minimum energy requirements for the same set of DLS vary threefold, from 14 in South Asia to 44 GJ/cap/year in North America. Globally, the 174 EJ/year needed to support DLS for all is less than half of current final energy consumption. The cumulative energy required to build new infrastructure to support DLS for all is under one year of global consumption.
I then develop a post-processing framework called DESIRE, and assess whether climate mitigation and sustainable development scenarios can plausibly claim to meet energy needs for all. Under ambitious sustainable development pathways, the global average minimum energy requirement falls from 22 GJ/cap in 2020 to 12-16 GJ/cap in 2040. Service-provisioning improvements, energy service growth, and inequality reduction together cut the global buildings energy deprivation headcount from about 5 to 0.2-0.4 billion people by 2040, without raising total energy demand. Transport gaps, however, remain. Emissions related to delivering DLS energy for all total roughly 179-206 GtCO2 over 2024-2050. These results support my hypothesis.
Situating the work within climate justice, human needs theory, and energy modelling, I first define DLS and examine current deprivation around the world. I find that more people are deprived of DLS than fall below international income poverty lines, even against medium income poverty thresholds.
Regionally, minimum energy requirements for the same set of DLS vary threefold, from 14 in South Asia to 44 GJ/cap/year in North America. Globally, the 174 EJ/year needed to support DLS for all is less than half of current final energy consumption. The cumulative energy required to build new infrastructure to support DLS for all is under one year of global consumption.
I then develop a post-processing framework called DESIRE, and assess whether climate mitigation and sustainable development scenarios can plausibly claim to meet energy needs for all. Under ambitious sustainable development pathways, the global average minimum energy requirement falls from 22 GJ/cap in 2020 to 12-16 GJ/cap in 2040. Service-provisioning improvements, energy service growth, and inequality reduction together cut the global buildings energy deprivation headcount from about 5 to 0.2-0.4 billion people by 2040, without raising total energy demand. Transport gaps, however, remain. Emissions related to delivering DLS energy for all total roughly 179-206 GtCO2 over 2024-2050. These results support my hypothesis.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2026-01-26
Date Awarded
2026-07-01
Copyright Statement
Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC)
License URL
Advisor
Rogelj, Joeri
Riahi, Keywan
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain)
Grant Number
NE/S007415/1
Publisher Department
Centre for Environmental Policy
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)