The role of machine learning for flexibility and real options analysis in engineering systems design
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Published version
Author(s)
Caputo, Cesare
Cardin, Michel-Alexandre
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Flexibility analysis helps improve the expected value of engineering systems under uncertainty (economic and/or social). Designing for flexibility, however, can be challenging as a large number of design variables, parameters, uncertainty drivers, decision making possibilities and metrics must be considered. Many available techniques either rely on assumptions that are not suitable for an engineering setting, or may be limited due to computational intractability. This paper makes the case for an increased integration of Machine Learning into flexibility and real options analysis in engineering systems design to complement existing design methods. Several synergies are found and discussed critically between the fields in order to explore better solutions that may exist by analyzing the data, which may not be intuitive to domain experts. Reinforcement Learning is particularly promising as a result of the theoretical common grounds with latest methodological developments e.g. decision-rule based real options analysis. Relevance to the field of computational creativity is examined, and potential avenues for further research are identified. The proposed concepts are illustrated through the design of an example infrastructure system.
Date Issued
2021-08-09
Date Acceptance
2021-02-28
Citation
Proceedings of the Design Society, 2021, 1, pp.3121-3130
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Start Page
3121
End Page
3130
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the Design Society
Volume
1
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Identifier
https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/role-of-machine-learning-for-flexibility-and-real-options-analysis-in-engineering-systems-design/BB7EBC95C7091475051DCBD6618C09AC
Source
International Conference on Engineering Design
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2021-08-16
Finish Date
2021-08-20
Coverage Spatial
Gothenburg, Sweden
Date Publish Online
2021-07-27