A robust score-driven filter for multivariate time series
File(s)DLM_paper_ER_rev_2_v1.pdf (735.25 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
D’Innocenzo, Enzo
Luati, Alessandra
Mazzocchi, Mario
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A multivariate score-driven filter is developed to extract signals from noisy vector processes. By assuming that the conditional location vector from a multivariate Student’s t distribution changes over time, we construct a robust filter which is able to overcome several issues that naturally arise when modeling heavy-tailed phenomena and, more in general, vectors of dependent non-Gaussian time series. We derive conditions for stationarity and invertibility and estimate the unknown parameters by maximum likelihood. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are derived. Analytical formulae are derived which consent to develop estimation procedures based on a fast and reliable Fisher scoring method. An extensive Monte–Carlo study is designed to assess the finite samples properties of the estimator, the impact of initial conditions on the filtered sequence, the performance when some of the underlying assumptions are violated, such as symmetry of the underlying distribution and homogeneity of the degrees of freedom parameter across marginals. The theory is supported by a novel empirical illustration that shows how the model can be effectively applied to estimate consumer prices from home scanner data.
Date Issued
2023-06-06
Date Acceptance
2023-06-01
Citation
Econometric Reviews, 2023, 42 (5), pp.441-470
ISSN
0747-4938
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Start Page
441
End Page
470
Journal / Book Title
Econometric Reviews
Volume
42
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2023 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Econometric Reviews on 06 Jun 2023, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2023.2198930
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2023.2198930
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-06-06