Report 1: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Imai, natsuko
Dorigatti, ilaria
Cori, anne
Riley, steven
Ferguson, neil
Type
Report
Abstract
We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) had onset of symptoms by 12th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case).
This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
• Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
• There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].
• Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
• Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
• There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].
• Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
Date Issued
2020-01-17
Citation
2020, pp.1-5
Start Page
1
End Page
5
Copyright Statement
© 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-01-17-COVID19-Report-1.pdf
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID-19
Epidemic Size
Publication Status
Published