The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
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Accepted version
Supporting information
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.
Date Issued
2020-08-07
Date Acceptance
2020-07-23
Citation
Nature Medicine, 2020, 26, pp.1411-1416
ISSN
1078-8956
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
1411
End Page
1416
Journal / Book Title
Nature Medicine
Volume
26
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2020. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y
Sponsor
Imperial College LOndon
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Wellcome Trust
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32770167
PII: 10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y
Grant Number
OPP1068440
MR/R015600/1
200222/B/15/Z
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Cell Biology
Medicine, Research & Experimental
Research & Experimental Medicine
PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM
CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS
TRANSMISSION
CHILDREN
BURDEN
CHINA
Immunology
11 Medical and Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2020-08-07