COVID-19: nowcasting reproduction factors using biased case testing data
File(s)2005.12252v1.pdf (465.6 KB)
Working paper
Author(s)
Contaldi, Carlo R
Type
Working Paper
Abstract
Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$
has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an
important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also
important for accurate modelling of epidemic progression. This brief paper
introduces a method for estimating $R$ from biased case testing data. Using
testing data, rather than hospitalisation or death data, provides a much
earlier metric along the symptomatic progression scale. This can be hugely
important when fighting the exponential nature of an epidemic. We develop a
practical estimator and apply it to Scottish case testing data to infer a
current (20 May 2020) $R$ value of $0.74$ with $95\%$ confidence interval
$[0.48 - 0.86]$.
has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an
important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also
important for accurate modelling of epidemic progression. This brief paper
introduces a method for estimating $R$ from biased case testing data. Using
testing data, rather than hospitalisation or death data, provides a much
earlier metric along the symptomatic progression scale. This can be hugely
important when fighting the exponential nature of an epidemic. We develop a
practical estimator and apply it to Scottish case testing data to infer a
current (20 May 2020) $R$ value of $0.74$ with $95\%$ confidence interval
$[0.48 - 0.86]$.
Date Issued
2020-05-25
Citation
2020
Publisher
arXiv
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s)
Identifier
http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12252v1
Subjects
q-bio.PE
q-bio.PE
physics.med-ph
physics.soc-ph
q-bio.QM
Publication Status
Published