National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is set
to change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat and
transport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood:
contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scaling
equally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasing
the requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability.
This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countries
undergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’s
electricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOAD
and DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistently
show peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GW
in Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heat
pumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand.
The structure and shape of the future load curves are analysed, and impacts on the national
electricity systems are drawn.