Development and implementation of a COVID-19 near real time traffic light system in an acute hospital setting
File(s)emermed-2020-210199 R2_Proof_hi-mpv.pdf (2.21 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Common causes of death in COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 include thromboembolic disease, cytokine storm and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Our aim was to develop a system for early detection of disease pattern in the emergency department (ED) that would enhance opportunities for personalised accelerated care to prevent disease progression. A single Trust’s COVID-19 response control command was established, and a reporting team with bioinformaticians was deployed to develop a real-time traffic light system to support clinical and operational teams. An attempt was made to identify predictive elements for thromboembolism, cytokine storm and ARDS based on physiological measurements and blood tests, and to communicate to clinicians managing the patient, initially via single consultants. The input variables were age, sex, and first recorded blood pressure, respiratory rate, temperature, heart rate, indices of oxygenation and C-reactive protein. Early admissions were used to refine the predictors used in the traffic lights. Of 923 consecutive patients who tested COVID-19 positive, 592 (64%) flagged at risk for thromboembolism, 241/923 (26%) for cytokine storm and 361/923 (39%) for ARDS. Thromboembolism and cytokine storm flags were met in the ED for 342 (37.1%) patients. Of the 318 (34.5%) patients receiving thromboembolism flags, 49 (5.3% of all patients) were for suspected thromboembolism, 103 (11.1%) were high-risk and 166 (18.0%) were medium-risk. Of the 89 (9.6%) who received a cytokine storm flag from the ED, 18 (2.0% of all patients) were for suspected cytokine storm, 13 (1.4%) were high-risk and 58 (6.3%) were medium-risk. Males were more likely to receive a specific traffic light flag. In conclusion, ED predictors were used to identify high proportions of COVID-19 admissions at risk of clinical deterioration due to severity of disease, enabling accelerated care targeted to those more likely to benefit. Larger prospective studies are encouraged.
Date Issued
2020-09-25
Date Acceptance
2020-08-19
Citation
Emergency Medicine Journal, 2020, 37 (10), pp.630-636
ISSN
1472-0205
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group
Start Page
630
End Page
636
Journal / Book Title
Emergency Medicine Journal
Volume
37
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ’s website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained. This article has been accepted for publication in Emergency Medicine Journal following peer review. The definitive copyedited, typeset version [insert complete citation information when available] is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2020-210199
This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ’s website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained. This article has been accepted for publication in Emergency Medicine Journal following peer review. The definitive copyedited, typeset version [insert complete citation information when available] is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2020-210199
Identifier
https://emj.bmj.com/content/37/10/630
Subjects
SARS
clinical care
emergency care systems
infectious diseases
management
resuscitation
thrombo-embolic disease
ventilation
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
COVID-19
Coronavirus Infections
Disease Progression
Emergency Medical Tags
Emergency Service, Hospital
Female
Hospital Mortality
Hospitals, University
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Pandemics
Patient Care Team
Patient Selection
Pneumonia, Viral
Precision Medicine
Risk Assessment
Severity of Illness Index
Sex Factors
Thromboembolism
United Kingdom
ChelWest COVID-19 Consortium
Humans
Pneumonia, Viral
Coronavirus Infections
Thromboembolism
Disease Progression
Severity of Illness Index
Hospital Mortality
Risk Assessment
Emergency Medical Tags
Age Factors
Sex Factors
Patient Selection
Adult
Aged
Middle Aged
Hospitals, University
Emergency Service, Hospital
Patient Care Team
Female
Male
Pandemics
Precision Medicine
United Kingdom
COVID-19
Emergency & Critical Care Medicine
1103 Clinical Sciences
1110 Nursing
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-08-20