Report 38: SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis
File(s)2020-11-27-COVID19-Report-38.pdf (1.35 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Report
Abstract
Since the end of 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly across the world. Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for disease control policies but evidence of transmission rates in different settings remains limited. We conducted a systematic review to estimate the secondary attack rate (SAR) and observed reproduction number (Robs) in different settings and to explore differences by age, symptom status, duration of exposure and household size. A total of 97 studies were identified, 45 of which met inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Households showed the highest transmission rates, with pooled SAR and Robs estimates of 21.1% (95% CI: 17.4%-24.8%) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.67-1.32), respectively. Household SAR estimates were significantly higher where the duration of household exposure exceeded 5 days compared with exposure of 5 days or less. Attack rates related to familiar and prolonged close contacts, such as social events with family and friends were higher than those related to low-risk casual contacts, such as strangers (SAR of 5.9%, 95% CI: 3.8%-8.1% vs. 1.2%, 95% CI: 0.3%-2.1%). Estimates of SAR for asymptomatic index cases were approximately two thirds of those for symptomatic index (3.5% vs. 12.8%, p<0.001). We find moderate evidence for less transmission both from and to individuals under 20 years of age in the household context, but this difference is less evident when examining all settings. Prolonged contact in households and in settings with familiar close contacts increases the potential for transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, the differences observed in transmissibility by symptom status of index cases and the potential for age-dependent effects has important implications for outbreak control strategies such as contact tracing, testing and rapid isolation of cases. There was limited data to allow exploration of transmission patterns in workplaces, schools, and care-homes, highlighting the need for further research in such settings.
Date Issued
2020-11-27
Citation
2020, pp.1-22
Start Page
1
End Page
22
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-11-38-COVID19-Report-38.pdf
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID19
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Transmission
Publication Status
Published