Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal.
Date Issued
2016-09-01
Date Acceptance
2016-07-05
Citation
Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6 (9), pp.827-835
ISSN
1758-678X
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
827
End Page
835
Journal / Book Title
Nature Climate Change
Volume
6
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000382136600011&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
1.5 DEGREES-C
SEA-LEVEL RISE
CLIMATE-CHANGE
ICE-SHEET
NEGATIVE EMISSIONS
WEST ANTARCTICA
AIR-POLLUTION
PINE ISLAND
CORAL-REEFS
CO2 REMOVAL
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-07-25