All is not lost: deriving a top-down mass budget of plastic at sea
File(s)Koelmans_etal2017.pdf (336.43 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Koelmans, AA
Kooi, M
Law, KL
van Sebille, E
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding the global mass inventory is one of the main challenges in present research on plastic marine debris. Especially the fragmentation and vertical transport processes of oceanic plastic are poorly understood. However, whereas fragmentation rates are unknown, information on plastic emissions, concentrations of plastics in the ocean surface layer (OSL) and fragmentation mechanisms is available. Here, we apply a systems engineering analytical approach and propose a tentative 'whole ocean' mass balance model that combines emission data, surface area-normalized plastic fragmentation rates, estimated concentrations in the OSL, and removal from the OSL by sinking. We simulate known plastic abundances in the OSL and calculate an average whole ocean apparent surface area-normalized plastic fragmentation rate constant, given representative radii for macroplastic and microplastic. Simulations show that 99.8% of the plastic that had entered the ocean since 1950 had settled below the OSL by 2016, with an additional 9.4 million tons settling per year. In 2016, the model predicts that of the 0.309 million tons in the OSL, an estimated 83.7% was macroplastic, 13.8% microplastic, and 2.5% was < 0.335 mm 'nanoplastic'. A zero future emission simulation shows that almost all plastic in the OSL would be removed within three years, implying a fast response time of surface plastic abundance to changes in inputs. The model complements current spatially explicit models, points to future experiments that would inform critical model parameters, and allows for further validation when more experimental and field data become available.
Date Issued
2017-11-10
Date Acceptance
2017-10-20
Citation
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 12 (11)
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Journal / Book Title
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume
12
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© 2017 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Sponsor
European Research Council
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000415081500001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
715386
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
plastic debris
microplastic
ocean modeling
fragmentation
MICROPLASTICS
INGESTION
DEBRIS
OCEAN
ZOOPLANKTON
PARTICLES
POLLUTION
PACIFIC
MD Multidisciplinary
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 114028