Repository logo
  • Log In
    Log in via Symplectic to deposit your publication(s).
Repository logo
  • Communities & Collections
  • Research Outputs
  • Statistics
  • Log In
    Log in via Symplectic to deposit your publication(s).
  1. Home
  2. Faculty of Medicine
  3. School of Public Health
  4. Department of Infectious Diseases
  5. Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
 
  • Details
Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
File(s)
2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf (2.38 MB)
Working paper
Author(s)
Volz, Erik
Mishra, Swapnil
Chand, Meera
Barrett, Jeffrey C
Johnson, Robert
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England1, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 20202. Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing shows an unprecedentedly rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during Autumn 2020, suggesting a selective advantage. We find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Time-varying reproduction numbers for the VOC and cocirculating lineages were estimated using SGTF and genomic data. The best supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Date Issued
2021-05-13
Date Acceptance
2021-03-18
Citation
Nature, 2021, 593, pp.266-269
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85239
URL
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/early/2021/01/04/2020.12.30.20249034.1
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
266
End Page
269
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
593
Is Replaced By
10044/1/87474
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/87474
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). It is available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33767447
PII: 10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
Notes
elocation-id: 2020.12.30.20249034
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2021-03-25
About
Spiral Depositing with Spiral Publishing with Spiral Symplectic
Contact us
Open access team Report an issue
Other Services
Scholarly Communications Library Services
logo

Imperial College London

South Kensington Campus

London SW7 2AZ, UK

tel: +44 (0)20 7589 5111

Accessibility Modern slavery statement Cookie Policy

Built with DSpace-CRIS software - Extension maintained and optimized by 4Science

  • Cookie settings
  • Privacy policy
  • End User Agreement
  • Send Feedback