Jointly inferring the dynamics of population size and sampling intensity from molecular sequences
File(s)msaa016.pdf (2 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Parag, Kris
Du Plessis, Louis
Pybus, Oliver
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Estimating past population dynamics from molecular sequences that have been sampled longitudinally through time is an important problem in infectious disease epidemiology, molecular ecology and macroevolution. Popular solutions, such as the skyline and skygrid methods, infer past effective population sizes from the coalescent event times of phylogenies reconstructed from sampled sequences, but assume that sequence sampling times are uninformative about population size changes. Recent work has started to question this assumption by exploring how sampling time information can aid coalescent inference. Here we develop, investigate, and implement a new skyline method, termed the epoch sampling skyline plot (ESP), to jointly estimate the dynamics of population size and sampling rate through time. The ESP is inspired by real-world data collection practices and comprises a flexible model in which the sequence sampling rate is proportional to the population size within an epoch but can change discontinuously between epochs. We show that the ESP is accurate under several realistic sampling protocols and we prove analytically that it can at least double the best precision achievable by standard approaches. We generalise the ESP to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty in a new Bayesian package (BESP) in BEAST2. We re-examine two well-studied empirical datasets from virus epidemiology and molecular evolution and find that the BESP improves upon previous coalescent estimators and generates new, biologically-useful insights into the sampling protocols underpinning these datasets. Sequence sampling times provide a rich source of information for coalescent inference that will become increasingly important as sequence collection intensifies and becomes more formalised.
Date Issued
2020-08-01
Date Acceptance
2020-01-07
Citation
Molecular Biology and Evolution, 2020, 37 (8), pp.2414-2429
ISSN
0737-4038
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
2414
End Page
2429
Journal / Book Title
Molecular Biology and Evolution
Volume
37
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Identifier
https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/37/8/2414/5719057
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Bayesian phylogenetics
bison
coalescent processes
demographic inference
influenza
sampling models
skyline plots
Evolutionary Biology
0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology
0603 Evolutionary Biology
0604 Genetics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-01-31