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  4. The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals
 
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The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals
File(s)
energies-10-00602.pdf (1.94 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Gambhir, A
Napp, T
Hawkes, A
Hoglund-Isaksson, L
Winiwarter, W
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO2e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO2 mitigation.
Date Issued
2017-05-01
Date Acceptance
2017-04-14
Citation
Energies, 2017, 10 (5)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48139
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.3390/en10050602
ISSN
1996-1073
Publisher
MDPI
Journal / Book Title
Energies
Volume
10
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Sponsor
Met Office
Grant Number
PO14206
Subjects
09 Engineering
02 Physical Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
602
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