Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Hanea, AM
McBride, MF
Burgman, MA
Wintle, BC
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.
Date Issued
2018-01-01
Date Acceptance
2016-05-20
Citation
Journal of Risk Research, 2018, 21 (4), pp.417-433
ISSN
1366-9877
Publisher
Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Start Page
417
End Page
433
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Risk Research
Volume
21
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Risk Research on 9 Aug 2016, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13669877.2016.1215346
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000427730200003&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Social Sciences
Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
Social Sciences - Other Topics
structured expert judgement
experts' dependence
eliciting event probabilities
combining experts' opinion
mathematical aggregation
OVERCONFIDENCE
QUANTIFICATION
PROBABILITIES
ELICITATION
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2016-08-09