Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data
File(s)
Author(s)
Foreman, KJ
Li, G
Best, N
Ezzati, M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mortality forecasts are typically limited in that they pertain only to national death rates, predict only all-cause mortality or do not capture and utilize the correlation between diseases. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that jointly forecasts cause-specific death rates for geographic subunits. We examine its effectiveness by applying it to US vital statistics data for 1979–2011 and produce forecasts to 2024. Not only does the model generate coherent forecasts for mutually exclusive causes of death, but also it has lower out-of-sample error than alternative commonly used models for forecasting mortality.
Date Issued
2016-05-20
Date Acceptance
2016-05-01
Citation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 2016, 66 (1), pp.121-139
ISSN
0035-9254
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
121
End Page
139
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C
Volume
66
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2016 Royal Statistical Society. This is the accepted version of the following article: Foreman, K. J., Li, G., Best, N. and Ezzati, M. (2017), Small area forecasts of cause-specific mortality: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model to US vital registration data. J. R. Stat. Soc. C, 66: 121–139. doi:10.1111/rssc.12157, which has been published in final form at https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12157
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000392808300001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Bayesian hierarchical models
Cause-specific mortality
Forecasting methods
Population health
Spatiotemporal modelling
UNITED-STATES MORTALITY
CANCER-MORTALITY
DISEASE
RATES
0104 Statistics
Publication Status
Published