Ammonia at the net-zero crossroads
File(s)
Published version (article in press)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Ammonia is indispensable for food production and an emerging carbon-free energy vector, yet its synthesis via the fossil-fuelled Haber–Bosch process makes it a major source of carbon dioxide. We introduce the Ammonia Rainbow, a classification framework combining physics-based modelling, learning-curve analysis, and life-cycle sustainability assessment to evaluate net-zero transitions across eight ammonia production technologies. Here we show that, assuming global ammonia demand doubles to meet projected food and energy needs, net-zero ammonia is not achievable by 2050 under any current policy or technological scenario. Even optimistic deployment of green routes demands extensive infrastructure, consuming over 40 percent of available green hydrogen alongside large fractions of carbon capture and renewable energy capacity. Electrochemical routes offer long-term promise but are unlikely to reach commercial viability before 2070 without disruptive innovation. By exposing these hidden systems-level burdens, we challenge the prevailing assumption of unchecked demand growth and argue for demand-side measures, efficiency improvements, and alternative decarbonisation strategies.
Date Issued
2026-07-21
Date Acceptance
2026-07-13
Citation
Nature Communications, 2026
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Journal / Book Title
Nature Communications
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/42481482
PII: 10.1038/s41467-026-75880-2
Publication Status
Published online
Coverage Spatial
England
Date Publish Online
2026-07-21