Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: transparency and integrated assessment modeling
File(s)wcc.727.pdf (1.31 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Skea, Jim
Shukla, Priyadarshi
Al Khourdajie, Alaa
McCollum, David
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) connect trends in future socioeconomic and technological development with impacts on the environment, such as global climate change. They occupy a critical position at the global science-policy interface. IAMs and associated scenarios have come under intense scrutiny, with critiques addressing both methodological and substantive issues, such as land use, carbon dioxide removal and technology performance. Criticisms have also addressed the transparency of IAM methods and assumptions as well as the transparency of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of IAMs. This paper, authored by the co-chairs of IPCC Working Group III and members of the Technical Support Unit, documents activities aiming to enhance the transparency of IAMs and their assessment. It includes a history of IPCC's approach to scenarios covering the formation of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2007 and the emergence of the approach by which IPCC facilitates the development of scenarios, but does not produce them itself. An IPCC Expert Meeting at the start of the current assessment cycle made transparency recommendations targeted at both the research community and IPCC. The community has taken steps to “open the black box” by moving toward open-source and web-publishing IAM documentation. IPCC has included an Annex to its next report focusing on scenarios and modeling methodologies. An open call for scenario data linked to the current IPCC report includes an expanded set of input and output variables. This paper ends with suggested criteria for measuring the success of these efforts to improve transparency.
Date Issued
2021-09-01
Date Acceptance
2021-06-10
Citation
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change, 2021, 12 (5)
ISSN
1757-7780
Publisher
Wiley
Journal / Book Title
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change
Volume
12
Issue
5
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
EP/P022820/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Studies
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
integrated assessment
IPCC
modeling
scenarios
transparency
SCENARIOS
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN e727
Date Publish Online
2021-07-08