Transmission dynamics of Oropouche virus in Latin America and the Caribbean
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic to the Amazon region since the 1950s that re-emerged in late 2023, causing a major epidemic across Central and South America. Here we investigated the transmission dynamics of the 2023–2024 epidemic in Manaus City (Amazonas state, Brazil), a major metropolitan hub in the Amazon, and estimated OROV infections across Latin America and the Caribbean. OROV re-emergence in Manaus resulted in an increase of IgG seroprevalence from 11.4% in November 2023 to 25.7% in November 2024. The neutralizing capacity of OROV-specific IgG antibodies from individuals collected before and after the re-emergence demonstrated a median plaque reduction neutralization test 50% titer of 640 against both the historical and contemporary OROV isolates. A historical reconstruction of OROV circulation in Manaus indicated a continuous low-level transmission with two major outbreaks of comparable seasonality and magnitude in 1980–1981 and 2023–2024. We estimate approximately 336,000 OROV infections in the Amazon region under a scenario of continuous endemic transmission without major outbreaks and over 9.4 million OROV infections during major outbreaks from 1960 to 2025. Collectively, our findings provide a comprehensive assessment of OROV transmission in Manaus and contribute to a better understanding of the OROV burden.
Date Issued
2026-04-01
Date Acceptance
2026-01-13
Citation
Nature Medicine, 2026, 32 (4), pp.1383-1392
ISSN
1078-8956
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Start Page
1383
End Page
1392
Journal / Book Title
Nature Medicine
Volume
32
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
Copyright © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc. 2026This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/41876648
PII: 10.1038/s41591-026-04221-z
Subjects
Humans
Bunyaviridae Infections
Orthobunyavirus
Caribbean Region
Latin America
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Brazil
Antibodies, Viral
Immunoglobulin G
Male
Female
Adult
Antibodies, Neutralizing
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2026-03-24