Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback.
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The climate feedback determines how Earth's climate responds to anthropogenic forcing. It is thought to have been more negative in recent decades due to a sea surface temperature "pattern effect," whereby warming is concentrated in the western tropical Pacific, where nonlocal radiative feedbacks are very negative. This phenomenon has however primarily been studied within climate models. We diagnose a pattern effect from historical records as an evolution of the climate feedback over the past five decades. Our analysis assumes a constant rate of change of the climate feedback, which is justified post hoc. We find a decrease in climate feedback by 0.8 ± 0.5 W m-2 K-1 over the past 50 years, corresponding to a reduction in climate sensitivity. Earth system models' climate feedbacks instead increase over this period. Understanding and simulating this historical trend and its future evolution are critical for reliable climate projections.
Date Issued
2023-04-21
Date Acceptance
2023-03-22
Citation
Science Advances, 2023, 9 (16), pp.1-7
ISSN
2375-2548
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Science Advances
Volume
9
Issue
16
Copyright Statement
Copyright© 2023The Authors,somerightsreserved;exclusive licenseeAmericanAssociationfor the Advancementof Science.No claim tooriginalU.S. GovernmentWorks. Distributedundera CreativeCommonsAttributionLicense4.0 (CC BY).
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37083537
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2023-04-21